The mistake of "doing the wrong thing."

• At first glance, “Don’t do the wrong thing” appears to be a fair assertion.

• But often wrong in some situations.

• A: “Do not act until you are sure you are not wrong.”

• B: “I may be wrong, but I act.”

• The idea of “don’t do the wrong thing” strengthens “A” and weakens “B.

• Whether A or B is better depends on the situation.

  • Probability of getting what you expect from an action
  • Damage that can occur when actions do not produce what is expected
  • Learning that is gained when actions do not yield what is expected.
  • A is often better when the damage is great, e.g., when a mistake could result in loss of life
  • prospect theory
  • Tend to overestimate potential for damage

• Opportunity loss occurs by not doing, but opportunity loss is hard to see and therefore tends to be underestimated

• You’re doing it wrong.

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